Fallout 4 is less than two weeks away (yes, it's really that close!), with some people being lucky enough to stream the game early. With Bethesda revealing the last scraps of information for the game—which the developer has been characteristically tight-lipped on—now's the time for some theories about where Fallout 4's story will be going that you might not have heard about yet. Wild Wasteland, indeed.
So far, I've analyzed Fallout 4's perks system, Dogmeat as a companion, power armor, and the recently revealed Trophy/Achievements list (Warning: There will be some potential spoilers based on this list). This time around, I'm taking all of this info together into the following five crazy predictions for the story. These don't come out of far left field, though, and are based on various snippets of official information that we know about the game as well as references to the Commonwealth from past Fallout games.
Will any of these theories be true? Or do I need to lay off the Cherry Mentats?
1. Dr. Li Will Return As An NPC
Last time we encountered Dr. Madison Li was in Fallout 3 as one of the original scientists for Project Purity as well as the reboot of the project. She is first found in Rivet City concentrating on other scientific ventures for years after your character's father, James, abandoned the original project long ago when your mother died at childhood and James wanted to keep you safe in the Vault. James eventually convinces Dr. Li to resume Project Purity once more, but after the game ends, her whereabouts are generally unknown until the Broken Steel DLC released.
In this post-game DLC, which extends the ending of Fallout 3, you can speak with Scribe Bigsley and inquire about why she is no longer at Project Purity: “Tch. She apparently decided to pursue 'more interesting projects' up north in the Commonwealth.” Not only is the Commonwealth the setting for Fallout 4, but a part of the reason she left was because she didn't appreciate The Brotherhood of Steel “improving” upon her work. Bigsley adds rather sarcastically that he wishes her the best of luck and that “it's a long walk to the Commonwealth.”
Now, the Bostonian Commonwealth isn't terribly far from Washington D.C., so Dr. Li could very well be in Fallout 4, perhaps having just arrived in the area. Now, it's uncertain whether she would have enough time to reach the Commonwealth to meet the Sole Survivor since the events in Fallout 3 likely overlap with the events in Fallout 4 as they both occur in year 2277.
If she's in Fallout 4 somewhere, I would suspect that she would be working for either The Institute given her extensive scientific knowledge, or the Enclave (if they have a presence in the Commonwealth) given her distaste for The Brotherhood of Steel. If she's not, due mainly to the timing, then she could be a part of Fallout 4's future DLC campaigns. The success of Project Purity in Washington DC would likely have reached The Commonwealth by then, and would be a project worth reinstating there perhaps in the iconic Boston Harbor.
2. Your Spouse Is An Android, Not You
There's been a wealth of speculation that the Sole Survivor in Fallout 4 is actually an android, which would explain why your character doesn't seem to age at all between 2077 when the game begins and 2277 when your character emerges from Vault 111. However, there's footage of a Pip-Boy screen with stimpaks and radaways, so it would seem strange that you would need these items at all if you are indeed an android.
I suppose you could explain this by saying that you've been programmed to see blood or react much like a human when you take on damage, in the same way that the android Harkness does in Rivet City in Fallout 3. But you could explain the lack of aging by you being in a cryogenic sleep chamber instead (though this isn't confirmed), and it would be extremely easy for robots to detect that you are indeed not a human, especially in this Commonwealth setting where androids seem to be a dime a dozen.
All considered, I believe that your spouse being an android would be a much better explanation for your survival. If the footage of you and your family running toward the Vault is correct, it would seem like you and your spouse, who's holding your baby, are caught in the explosion right before you're able to descend into Vault 111. But you survive of course, and if the Trophy/Achievements list for Fallout 4 is any indication, your child will survive as well. One possible explanation to me would be that your spouse is actually an android and shields both you and your child long enough from the blast to bring you both down into the Vault.
Given that The Institute is infamous for creating androids (and using them as slaves), the idea of your spouse being an android would fit in neatly. Every Vault in the Fallout series servers an alternate role as an experiment performed on human test subjects, so the idea of Vault-Tec and The Institute working in tandem to craftily fashion a Vault with android subjects (which might explain why you and your family were approved to enter Vault 111 as opposed to other families in the area) wouldn't be too far out of the realm of possibility.
Also, the amount of work that you'll put into making the face of your spouse (which also impacts the race and looks of your child) would seem to go to waste if your spouse just dies before you even enter the Vault. Now, this doesn't mean that I think your spouse automatically survives the 200 years in Vault 111, since you are named “The Sole Survivor” for a reason, but I do think that your spouse being an android would explain quite a bit and would tie well into the game's potential focus on androids without forcing your character to be one. I feel like that would be too obvious.
3. You Will Be Able To Turn Into A Ghoul
If you head to the main page of Fallout4.com and scroll down to the section labelled “Tips From The Vault”, there's an extremely clear image (posted above) that accompanies the tip on radiation called “Beware the Silent Killer”. It suggests that with continual radiation resistance, your facial appearance will gradually transform into a more ghoulish figure.
Fallout fans have asked for ghoulification for years, and Fallout 4 would be a good place to start given the crispness of the graphics and the existence of The Glowing Sea, the site of the nuclear explosion which in 2277 has become a heavily irradiated wasteland with occasional radiation storms that continue to plague the Commonwealth.
The only other sliver of noteworthy evidence for ghoulification is the released Perk Chart for Fallout 4, specifically the unknown perk in the table for Endurance Rank 9 (pictured above). In this image, the Vault Boy seems to turn slowly into a ghoul-like figure as he's walking away from a massive nuclear explosion. If ghoulification is indeed in Fallout 4, an associated perk with it would be under the Endurance stat (which partially governs radiation resistance) and be at a high value for Endurance (at level 9).
My best educated guess would be that this perk will prevent your character from dying due to radiation poisoning, even if met by a nearby nuclear explosion, and instead walk the wasteland with the highest levels of radiation instead. Or in other words, as a ghoul.
The mural in Fallout 4's Museum of Freedom
4. The Fate of The Commonwealth Will Be Like The Ending Choices for New Vegas
In Fallout: New Vegas, you must ultimately decide the fate of the glitzy city by turning it over to the militant NCR, the slavers of Caesar's Legion, or the enterprising Mr. House, or by rejecting all three forces and establishing New Vegas as its own independent entity. I believe that The Sole Survivor will make the same decision in Fallout 4 when it comes to the fate of the Commonwealth.
Now, we know that you'll make a pivotal decision like this given the Trophy/Achievement (which is also the only Gold Trophy in teh game) called “Prepared for the Future” where you literally “Decide the Fate of the Commonwealth.” Given the three confirmed factions—The Minutemen, The Brotherhood of Steel, and The Railroad—it would seem that you'll be amassing support for some sort of game-ending conflict.
The larger picture, though, is the theme of independence. Given that this is the Bostonian Wasteland, it would be difficult not to wander around and see at least a handful of symbols representing liberty and freedom on any given day. I mean, there's a Museum of Freedom for heaven's sake.
Since the android conflict will likely be at heart of Fallout 4's story, I believe The Sole Survivor will ultimately decide the fate of the androids, giving the Institute or another party full remote control of the androids which would have that party reclaim the Commonwealth very easily. That's speculation, of course. I would not be surprised in the slightest if The Enclave, a secretive organization whose members are descendants of the pre-War government, are embroiled in the conflict as well.
At the end, I believe you will likely determine which military body will take over the Commonwealth. And you'll have the option to have The Commonwealth be free from all major forces, keeping it independent, perhaps even re-establishing a democracy between various political factions, planting the seeds for a new American nation. That said, I trust Bethesda Game Studios to surprise me with where the story goes, since they have the habit of making the quest about one thing but later turning it into another thing that's entirely different.
Dog/God from Fallout: New Vegas – Dead Money DLC
5. The Institute Will Lock You In A Mental Ward
One of the less talked-about Trophies/Achievements for Fallout 4 is named “Institutionalized”, a questline that seems to be embedded around the halfway point in the main campaign of story missions. The icon for the Trophy has the Vault Boy trying to hide from a shadowy figure lit from behind in a doorway, as he looks away, tucking his hand in his pocket.
The closest that we've come to being institutionalized in the last few Fallout titles is the one time that you're captured by The Enclave in Fallout 3 and the horror-survival homage of the Dead Money DLC for Fallout: New Vegas. That said, you're more imprisoned in these two examples than being flung into some kind of insane asylum, though Dead Money is much closer to a creepy mental ward for sure. In fact, by the way the icon for the “Institutionalized” quest looks, it could easily be a translation of Dead Money, forcing you to evade guards, stay away from lights and alarms, and escape by all means necessary.
Since we've already been locked away by The Enclave in the past (so it would be too obvious if it happened again here), the other clear group that would force you into this scary, cramped situation would be The Institute, a scientific organization based at MIT which is highly secretive and remains hidden in the Bostonian Wasteland. I imagine that you may need to explore buildings long since abandoned by The Institute to discover lost blueprints and technological devices, only to be caught by agents, dragged away, and locked behind bars.
As revealed by holotapes in Fallout 3 during the Replicated Man quest, these agents could well be from the Synth Retention Bureau who is in charge of capturing androids (and android sympathizers, I imagine). Even if it isn't a part of this quest in particular, I suspect that the SRB will play a huge role in the plotline. Whatever the case may be, this “Institutionalized” quest will likely be a climactic highlight in the story just based on where the quest is placed in the lineup.
Fallout 4 Essential Reading:
